EX

Simulation & Prediction

Back to journey: Cost & Capital Optimization

Forecasting

Historical actuals with run-rate, no-action and recommended-action projections against target.

Latest actual

ACTUAL

USD 82.4M

Run-rate (6 mo)

FORECAST

USD 82.4M

No action (6 mo)

FORECAST

USD 93.54M

Recommended (6 mo)

SCENARIO

USD 71.26M

Target

TARGET

Not stored

OPEX (QTD) — Cost Optimization

Solid = stored actuals (Historical KPI trend data). Dashed = deterministic projections in the shaded period. Band = ±1σ of historical residuals around the no-action line, widening with horizon. Direction of good: lower.

Forecast table

PeriodTypeActualRun-rateNo actionRecommendedSpread (±1σ)
Apr 26ACTUALUSD 72.7M
May 26ACTUALUSD 74.9M
Jun 26ACTUALUSD 76.8M
Jul 26ACTUALUSD 78.3M
Aug 26ACTUALUSD 79.9M
Sep 26ACTUALUSD 82.4M
Oct 26FORECAST—USD 82.4MUSD 84.26MUSD 80.54MUSD 83.97M – USD 84.55M
Nov 26FORECAST—USD 82.4MUSD 86.11MUSD 78.69MUSD 85.7M – USD 86.52M
Dec 26FORECAST—USD 82.4MUSD 87.97MUSD 76.83MUSD 87.46M – USD 88.48M
Jan 27FORECAST—USD 82.4MUSD 89.83MUSD 74.97MUSD 89.24M – USD 90.42M
Feb 27FORECAST—USD 82.4MUSD 91.69MUSD 73.11MUSD 91.04M – USD 92.34M
Mar 27FORECAST—USD 82.4MUSD 93.54MUSD 71.26MUSD 92.82M – USD 94.26M

Source data, assumptions, methodology & limitations

Source data

  • Telecom KPI data (current period, target, prior)
  • Historical KPI trend data (monthly history Apr–Sep 2026)

Assumptions

  • Run-rate baseline: holds the latest stored actual flat.
  • No action: continues the 6-month stored trend (+1.86 per month).
  • Recommended action: reverses the trend at the same monthly rate (no stored target).

Methodology

  • Least-squares straight line through 6 stored months (slope +1.857 per month).
  • Residual standard deviation σ = 0.293; spread = σ × √(months ahead).
  • Identical arithmetic feeds Decision Journey Stage 5 — Predict.

Limitations

  • Forecasts are straight-line projections of six stored months; they ignore seasonality, shocks and interactions between measures.
  • Many KPIs have no stored target; where absent, the recommended path reverses the trend at the same monthly rate.
  • No downside scenario is stored for any journey; downside coverage is shown as a gap rather than invented.
Forecast horizon: 6 months (Oct 2026 – Mar 2027)Model status: deterministic arithmetic — no AI or machine-learning model.
Evidence typeItemSource
methodology

Capital & Investment methodology

Track capex vs plan by programme; Compute ROI and payback per cohort; Link capacity added to revenue.

Finance Planning Dataset
assumption

Diesel price assumption

Diesel price held flat for the forecast horizon.

Finance Planning Dataset
methodology

Cost Optimization methodology

Allocate opex by function and unit cost; Benchmark unit costs; Track realised savings.

Finance Planning Dataset