Simulation & Prediction
Forecasting
Historical actuals with run-rate, no-action and recommended-action projections against target.
Latest actual
ACTUAL0.6%
Run-rate (6 mo)
FORECAST0.6%
No action (6 mo)
FORECAST0.98%
Recommended (6 mo)
SCENARIO0.22%
Target
TARGETNot stored
Interconnect leakage — Interconnect & Roaming
Solid = stored actuals (Historical KPI trend data). Dashed = deterministic projections in the shaded period. Band = ±1σ of historical residuals around the no-action line, widening with horizon. Direction of good: lower.
Forecast table
| Period | Type | Actual | Run-rate | No action | Recommended | Spread (±1σ) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 26 | ACTUAL | 0.3% | ||||
| May 26 | ACTUAL | 0.3% | ||||
| Jun 26 | ACTUAL | 0.3% | ||||
| Jul 26 | ACTUAL | 0.4% | ||||
| Aug 26 | ACTUAL | 0.5% | ||||
| Sep 26 | ACTUAL | 0.6% | ||||
| Oct 26 | FORECAST | — | 0.6% | 0.66% | 0.54% | 0.61% – 0.71% |
| Nov 26 | FORECAST | — | 0.6% | 0.73% | 0.47% | 0.66% – 0.8% |
| Dec 26 | FORECAST | — | 0.6% | 0.79% | 0.41% | 0.7% – 0.88% |
| Jan 27 | FORECAST | — | 0.6% | 0.85% | 0.35% | 0.75% – 0.95% |
| Feb 27 | FORECAST | — | 0.6% | 0.91% | 0.29% | 0.79% – 1.03% |
| Mar 27 | FORECAST | — | 0.6% | 0.98% | 0.22% | 0.85% – 1.11% |
Source data, assumptions, methodology & limitations
Source data
- Telecom KPI data (current period, target, prior)
- Historical KPI trend data (monthly history Apr–Sep 2026)
Assumptions
- Run-rate baseline: holds the latest stored actual flat.
- No action: continues the 6-month stored trend (+0.06 per month).
- Recommended action: reverses the trend at the same monthly rate (no stored target).
Methodology
- Least-squares straight line through 6 stored months (slope +0.063 per month).
- Residual standard deviation σ = 0.052; spread = σ × √(months ahead).
- Identical arithmetic feeds Decision Journey Stage 5 — Predict.
Limitations
- Forecasts are straight-line projections of six stored months; they ignore seasonality, shocks and interactions between measures.
- Many KPIs have no stored target; where absent, the recommended path reverses the trend at the same monthly rate.
- No downside scenario is stored for any journey; downside coverage is shown as a gap rather than invented.
Forecast horizon: 6 months (Oct 2026 – Mar 2027)Model status: deterministic arithmetic — no AI or machine-learning model.
| Evidence type | Item | Source |
|---|---|---|
| methodology | Interconnect & Roaming methodology Reconcile wholesale billing with partner invoices; Track margin by route and partner; Flag settlement variances. | Finance Planning Dataset |
| limitation | Settlement timing Partner settlements reconcile 60 days in arrears. | Billing Warehouse |