Simulation & Prediction
Forecasting
Historical actuals with run-rate, no-action and recommended-action projections against target.
Latest actual
ACTUAL2.9%
Run-rate (6 mo)
FORECAST2.9%
No action (6 mo)
FORECAST3.43%
Recommended (6 mo)
SCENARIO2.37%
Target
TARGETNot stored
Monthly churn — Churn & Retention
Solid = stored actuals (Historical KPI trend data). Dashed = deterministic projections in the shaded period. Band = ±1σ of historical residuals around the no-action line, widening with horizon. Direction of good: lower.
Forecast table
| Period | Type | Actual | Run-rate | No action | Recommended | Spread (±1σ) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 26 | ACTUAL | 2.4% | ||||
| May 26 | ACTUAL | 2.5% | ||||
| Jun 26 | ACTUAL | 2.6% | ||||
| Jul 26 | ACTUAL | 2.6% | ||||
| Aug 26 | ACTUAL | 2.7% | ||||
| Sep 26 | ACTUAL | 2.9% | ||||
| Oct 26 | FORECAST | — | 2.9% | 2.99% | 2.81% | 2.94% – 3.04% |
| Nov 26 | FORECAST | — | 2.9% | 3.08% | 2.72% | 3.01% – 3.15% |
| Dec 26 | FORECAST | — | 2.9% | 3.17% | 2.63% | 3.08% – 3.26% |
| Jan 27 | FORECAST | — | 2.9% | 3.25% | 2.55% | 3.14% – 3.36% |
| Feb 27 | FORECAST | — | 2.9% | 3.34% | 2.46% | 3.22% – 3.46% |
| Mar 27 | FORECAST | — | 2.9% | 3.43% | 2.37% | 3.3% – 3.56% |
Source data, assumptions, methodology & limitations
Source data
- Telecom KPI data (current period, target, prior)
- Historical KPI trend data (monthly history Apr–Sep 2026)
Assumptions
- Run-rate baseline: holds the latest stored actual flat.
- No action: continues the 6-month stored trend (+0.09 per month).
- Recommended action: reverses the trend at the same monthly rate (no stored target).
Methodology
- Least-squares straight line through 6 stored months (slope +0.089 per month).
- Residual standard deviation σ = 0.053; spread = σ × √(months ahead).
- Identical arithmetic feeds Decision Journey Stage 5 — Predict.
Limitations
- Forecasts are straight-line projections of six stored months; they ignore seasonality, shocks and interactions between measures.
- Many KPIs have no stored target; where absent, the recommended path reverses the trend at the same monthly rate.
- No downside scenario is stored for any journey; downside coverage is shown as a gap rather than invented.
| Evidence type | Item | Source |
|---|---|---|
| model output | Churn propensity scores 48k high-value subscribers scored above 60% churn propensity. | CRM |
| methodology | Churn & Retention methodology Segment churners by value, region and tenure; Correlate churn with network and competitor signals; Score base for churn propensity. | Finance Planning Dataset |
| assumption | Retention offer take-up Offer take-up modelled at 25% of targeted base. | CRM |