EX

Simulation & Prediction

Forecasting

Historical actuals with run-rate, no-action and recommended-action projections against target.

Latest actual

ACTUAL

USD 6.8M

Run-rate (6 mo)

FORECAST

USD 6.8M

No action (6 mo)

FORECAST

USD 10.02M

Recommended (6 mo)

SCENARIO

USD 3.58M

Target

TARGET

Not stored

Revenue at risk (churn) — Churn & Retention

Solid = stored actuals (Historical KPI trend data). Dashed = deterministic projections in the shaded period. Band = ±1σ of historical residuals around the no-action line, widening with horizon. Direction of good: lower.

Forecast table

PeriodTypeActualRun-rateNo actionRecommendedSpread (±1σ)
Apr 26ACTUALUSD 4.1M
May 26ACTUALUSD 4.5M
Jun 26ACTUALUSD 5.2M
Jul 26ACTUALUSD 5.7M
Aug 26ACTUALUSD 6.1M
Sep 26ACTUALUSD 6.8M
Oct 26FORECAST—USD 6.8MUSD 7.34MUSD 6.26MUSD 7.25M – USD 7.43M
Nov 26FORECAST—USD 6.8MUSD 7.87MUSD 5.73MUSD 7.75M – USD 7.99M
Dec 26FORECAST—USD 6.8MUSD 8.41MUSD 5.19MUSD 8.26M – USD 8.56M
Jan 27FORECAST—USD 6.8MUSD 8.95MUSD 4.65MUSD 8.77M – USD 9.13M
Feb 27FORECAST—USD 6.8MUSD 9.49MUSD 4.11MUSD 9.29M – USD 9.69M
Mar 27FORECAST—USD 6.8MUSD 10.02MUSD 3.58MUSD 9.8M – USD 10.24M

Source data, assumptions, methodology & limitations

Source data

  • Telecom KPI data (current period, target, prior)
  • Historical KPI trend data (monthly history Apr–Sep 2026)

Assumptions

  • Run-rate baseline: holds the latest stored actual flat.
  • No action: continues the 6-month stored trend (+0.54 per month).
  • Recommended action: reverses the trend at the same monthly rate (no stored target).

Methodology

  • Least-squares straight line through 6 stored months (slope +0.537 per month).
  • Residual standard deviation σ = 0.088; spread = σ × √(months ahead).
  • Identical arithmetic feeds Decision Journey Stage 5 — Predict.

Limitations

  • Forecasts are straight-line projections of six stored months; they ignore seasonality, shocks and interactions between measures.
  • Many KPIs have no stored target; where absent, the recommended path reverses the trend at the same monthly rate.
  • No downside scenario is stored for any journey; downside coverage is shown as a gap rather than invented.
Forecast horizon: 6 months (Oct 2026 – Mar 2027)Model status: deterministic arithmetic — no AI or machine-learning model.
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