EX

Simulation & Prediction

Forecasting

Historical actuals with run-rate, no-action and recommended-action projections against target.

Latest actual

ACTUAL

USD 82.4M

Run-rate (6 mo)

FORECAST

USD 82.4M

No action (6 mo)

FORECAST

USD 93.54M

Recommended (6 mo)

SCENARIO

USD 71.26M

Target

TARGET

Not stored

OPEX (QTD) — Cost Optimization

Solid = stored actuals (Historical KPI trend data). Dashed = deterministic projections in the shaded period. Band = ±1σ of historical residuals around the no-action line, widening with horizon. Direction of good: lower.

Forecast table

PeriodTypeActualRun-rateNo actionRecommendedSpread (±1σ)
Apr 26ACTUALUSD 72.7M
May 26ACTUALUSD 74.9M
Jun 26ACTUALUSD 76.8M
Jul 26ACTUALUSD 78.3M
Aug 26ACTUALUSD 79.9M
Sep 26ACTUALUSD 82.4M
Oct 26FORECAST—USD 82.4MUSD 84.26MUSD 80.54MUSD 83.97M – USD 84.55M
Nov 26FORECAST—USD 82.4MUSD 86.11MUSD 78.69MUSD 85.7M – USD 86.52M
Dec 26FORECAST—USD 82.4MUSD 87.97MUSD 76.83MUSD 87.46M – USD 88.48M
Jan 27FORECAST—USD 82.4MUSD 89.83MUSD 74.97MUSD 89.24M – USD 90.42M
Feb 27FORECAST—USD 82.4MUSD 91.69MUSD 73.11MUSD 91.04M – USD 92.34M
Mar 27FORECAST—USD 82.4MUSD 93.54MUSD 71.26MUSD 92.82M – USD 94.26M

Source data, assumptions, methodology & limitations

Source data

  • Telecom KPI data (current period, target, prior)
  • Historical KPI trend data (monthly history Apr–Sep 2026)

Assumptions

  • Run-rate baseline: holds the latest stored actual flat.
  • No action: continues the 6-month stored trend (+1.86 per month).
  • Recommended action: reverses the trend at the same monthly rate (no stored target).

Methodology

  • Least-squares straight line through 6 stored months (slope +1.857 per month).
  • Residual standard deviation σ = 0.293; spread = σ × √(months ahead).
  • Identical arithmetic feeds Decision Journey Stage 5 — Predict.

Limitations

  • Forecasts are straight-line projections of six stored months; they ignore seasonality, shocks and interactions between measures.
  • Many KPIs have no stored target; where absent, the recommended path reverses the trend at the same monthly rate.
  • No downside scenario is stored for any journey; downside coverage is shown as a gap rather than invented.
Forecast horizon: 6 months (Oct 2026 – Mar 2027)Model status: deterministic arithmetic — no AI or machine-learning model.
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