EX

Simulation & Prediction

Forecasting

Historical actuals with run-rate, no-action and recommended-action projections against target.

Latest actual

ACTUAL

USD 142.6M

Run-rate (6 mo)

FORECAST

USD 142.6M

No action (6 mo)

FORECAST

USD 158.77M

Recommended (6 mo)

SCENARIO

USD 158.77M

Target

TARGET

Not stored

Total revenue (QTD) — Financial Performance

Solid = stored actuals (Historical KPI trend data). Dashed = deterministic projections in the shaded period. Band = ±1σ of historical residuals around the no-action line, widening with horizon. Direction of good: higher.

Forecast table

PeriodTypeActualRun-rateNo actionRecommendedSpread (±1σ)
Apr 26ACTUALUSD 128.7M
May 26ACTUALUSD 131.6M
Jun 26ACTUALUSD 133.9M
Jul 26ACTUALUSD 137.4M
Aug 26ACTUALUSD 138.7M
Sep 26ACTUALUSD 142.6M
Oct 26FORECAST—USD 142.6MUSD 145.29MUSD 145.29MUSD 144.73M – USD 145.85M
Nov 26FORECAST—USD 142.6MUSD 147.99MUSD 147.99MUSD 147.2M – USD 148.78M
Dec 26FORECAST—USD 142.6MUSD 150.68MUSD 150.68MUSD 149.72M – USD 151.64M
Jan 27FORECAST—USD 142.6MUSD 153.38MUSD 153.38MUSD 152.27M – USD 154.49M
Feb 27FORECAST—USD 142.6MUSD 156.07MUSD 156.07MUSD 154.83M – USD 157.31M
Mar 27FORECAST—USD 142.6MUSD 158.77MUSD 158.77MUSD 157.41M – USD 160.13M

Source data, assumptions, methodology & limitations

Source data

  • Telecom KPI data (current period, target, prior)
  • Historical KPI trend data (monthly history Apr–Sep 2026)

Assumptions

  • Run-rate baseline: holds the latest stored actual flat.
  • No action: continues the 6-month stored trend (+2.69 per month).
  • Recommended action: reverses the trend at the same monthly rate (no stored target).

Methodology

  • Least-squares straight line through 6 stored months (slope +2.694 per month).
  • Residual standard deviation σ = 0.555; spread = σ × √(months ahead).
  • Identical arithmetic feeds Decision Journey Stage 5 — Predict.

Limitations

  • Forecasts are straight-line projections of six stored months; they ignore seasonality, shocks and interactions between measures.
  • Many KPIs have no stored target; where absent, the recommended path reverses the trend at the same monthly rate.
  • No downside scenario is stored for any journey; downside coverage is shown as a gap rather than invented.
Forecast horizon: 6 months (Oct 2026 – Mar 2027)Model status: deterministic arithmetic — no AI or machine-learning model.
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