EX

Simulation & Prediction

Forecasting

Historical actuals with run-rate, no-action and recommended-action projections against target.

Latest actual

ACTUAL

USD 4.32

Run-rate (6 mo)

FORECAST

USD 4.32

No action (6 mo)

FORECAST

USD 4.63

Recommended (6 mo)

SCENARIO

USD 4.63

Target

TARGET

Not stored

Blended ARPU — Revenue & ARPU

Solid = stored actuals (Historical KPI trend data). Dashed = deterministic projections in the shaded period. Band = ±1σ of historical residuals around the no-action line, widening with horizon. Direction of good: higher.

Forecast table

PeriodTypeActualRun-rateNo actionRecommendedSpread (±1σ)
Apr 26ACTUALUSD 4.05
May 26ACTUALUSD 4.11
Jun 26ACTUALUSD 4.09
Jul 26ACTUALUSD 4.18
Aug 26ACTUALUSD 4.24
Sep 26ACTUALUSD 4.32
Oct 26FORECAST—USD 4.32USD 4.37USD 4.37USD 4.34 – USD 4.40
Nov 26FORECAST—USD 4.32USD 4.42USD 4.42USD 4.38 – USD 4.46
Dec 26FORECAST—USD 4.32USD 4.48USD 4.48USD 4.43 – USD 4.53
Jan 27FORECAST—USD 4.32USD 4.53USD 4.53USD 4.47 – USD 4.59
Feb 27FORECAST—USD 4.32USD 4.58USD 4.58USD 4.51 – USD 4.65
Mar 27FORECAST—USD 4.32USD 4.63USD 4.63USD 4.55 – USD 4.71

Source data, assumptions, methodology & limitations

Source data

  • Telecom KPI data (current period, target, prior)
  • Historical KPI trend data (monthly history Apr–Sep 2026)

Assumptions

  • Run-rate baseline: holds the latest stored actual flat.
  • No action: continues the 6-month stored trend (+0.05 per month).
  • Recommended action: reverses the trend at the same monthly rate (no stored target).

Methodology

  • Least-squares straight line through 6 stored months (slope +0.052 per month).
  • Residual standard deviation σ = 0.031; spread = σ × √(months ahead).
  • Identical arithmetic feeds Decision Journey Stage 5 — Predict.

Limitations

  • Forecasts are straight-line projections of six stored months; they ignore seasonality, shocks and interactions between measures.
  • Many KPIs have no stored target; where absent, the recommended path reverses the trend at the same monthly rate.
  • No downside scenario is stored for any journey; downside coverage is shown as a gap rather than invented.
Forecast horizon: 6 months (Oct 2026 – Mar 2027)Model status: deterministic arithmetic — no AI or machine-learning model.
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