Simulation & Prediction
Reference Data
Governed tariff bands, market benchmarks, usage tiers, capacity assumptions, churn segments, cost drivers, risk bands and horizons used in scenarios.
Tariff bands
Effective FY2026
| Item | Value | Code | Source | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Entry prepaid | 49 ZAR / month | TB-LOW | Governed planning assumption | View details → |
| Mainstream bundle | 149 ZAR / month | TB-MID | Governed planning assumption | View details → |
| Premium postpaid | 499 ZAR / month | TB-HIGH | Governed planning assumption | View details → |
| Enterprise | 899 ZAR / month | TB-ENT | Governed planning assumption | View details → |
Market benchmarks
Effective FY2026
| Item | Value | Code | Source | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market monthly churn | 2.3 % | MB-CHURN | Industry benchmark (synthetic) | View details → |
| Market blended ARPU | 112 ZAR | MB-ARPU | Governed planning assumption | View details → |
| Market NPS | 34 score | MB-NPS | Governed planning assumption | View details → |
| Peer network availability | 99.6 % | MB-AVAIL | Governed planning assumption | View details → |
| Peer EBITDA margin | 38 % | MB-EBITDA | Governed planning assumption | View details → |
Usage tiers
Effective FY2026
| Item | Value | Code | Source | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Light data user | 1.5 GB / month | UT-LIGHT | Governed planning assumption | View details → |
| Medium data user | 6 GB / month | UT-MED | Governed planning assumption | View details → |
| Heavy data user | 20 GB / month | UT-HEAVY | Governed planning assumption | View details → |
Network capacity assumptions
Effective FY2026
| Item | Value | Code | Source | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Upgrade trigger utilisation | 80 % | CA-UTIL | Governed planning assumption | View details → |
| Annual traffic growth | 28 % | CA-GROWTH | Governed planning assumption | View details → |
| Capacity upgrade cost per site | 1.2 ZAR M | CA-SITE-COST | Governed planning assumption | View details → |
Churn segments
Effective FY2026
| Item | Value | Code | Source | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| High-value prepaid | 3.4 % churn | CS-HV | Governed planning assumption | View details → |
| Youth bundles | 3.9 % churn | CS-YOUTH | Governed planning assumption | View details → |
| Postpaid consumer | 1.1 % churn | CS-POST | Governed planning assumption | View details → |
| SME | 0.9 % churn | CS-SME | Governed planning assumption | View details → |
Cost drivers
Effective FY2026
| Item | Value | Code | Source | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diesel price | 23.8 ZAR / litre | CD-DIESEL | Governed planning assumption | View details → |
| Grid electricity tariff | 2.9 ZAR / kWh | CD-GRID | Governed planning assumption | View details → |
| Tower lease per site | 18 ZAR k / month | CD-LEASE | Governed planning assumption | View details → |
| Planning load-shedding stage | 2 stage | CD-LOADSHED | Governed planning assumption | View details → |
Risk bands
Effective FY2026
| Item | Value | Code | Source | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low risk | Probability < 20% | RB-LOW | Governed planning assumption | View details → |
| Medium risk | Probability 20–50% | RB-MED | Governed planning assumption | View details → |
| High risk | Probability > 50% | RB-HIGH | Governed planning assumption | View details → |
Scenario horizons
Effective FY2026
| Item | Value | Code | Source | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Short term | 3 months | SH-3M | Governed planning assumption | View details → |
| Planning horizon | 6 months | SH-6M | Governed planning assumption | View details → |
| Annual plan | 12 months | SH-12M | Governed planning assumption | View details → |
Campaign assumptions
Effective FY2026
| Item | Value | Code | Source | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 45-day campaign duration | 45 days | CA-SIM-REVERIFY-45D | Stated in decision case "Approve USSD + retail re-verification campaign" (Regulatory & Compliance journey). Not used by any stored scenario or calculation. | View details → |