Simulation & Prediction
Scenario Simulation Workspace
Compare current state, no action, recommended, upside and downside scenarios for one journey or issue.
Journey
Cost & Capital Optimization
KPI under simulation
OPEX (QTD)
Current
USD 82.4M
Target
No stored target
Scenario outcome cards
Base case
Current trajectory with in-flight initiatives only.
- Stated outcome
- OPEX over budget (YTD): +$7.4M
- Risk / trade-off
- —
- OPEX (QTD) in 6 mo
- USD 82.4M ACTUAL
No change
Keep current capex plan.
- Stated outcome
- $0
- Risk / trade-off
- Opex overrun continues
- OPEX (QTD) in 6 mo
- USD 93.54M SCENARIO
Reallocate to energy
Move rural capex to solar hybrid phase 2.
- Stated outcome
- $0.95M / yr opex saved
- Risk / trade-off
- Rural coverage delay
- OPEX (QTD) in 6 mo
- USD 71.26M SCENARIO
- Expected value
- Cost reduced: USD 950k expected
Additional capex
Fund solar phase 2 with new budget.
- Stated outcome
- $0.95M / yr saved
- Risk / trade-off
- Capex +$2.6M; ROI dilution
- OPEX (QTD) in 6 mo
- not modelled
Not stored for this journey: Upside, Downside. Shown as a gap rather than invented.
Scenario comparison — stated value vs cost/risk (USD M)
Amounts parsed from each scenario's stored results; ★ = recommended. Non-monetary outcomes plot as zero.
Risk / return matrix
Top-left = high value for low stated cost/risk.
OPEX (QTD) — actual vs scenario paths
Same projection as the journey Predict stage and the Forecasting page. Open full forecast →
Comparison table
| Scenario | Role | Assumptions | Projected KPI (6 mo) | Stated impact | Risk / trade-off |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base case | Current State | Current trajectory with in-flight initiatives only. | USD 82.4M | Baseline | — |
| No change | No Action | Keep current capex plan. | USD 93.54M | $0 | Opex overrun continues |
| Reallocate to energy | Recommended | Move rural capex to solar hybrid phase 2. | USD 71.26M | $0.95M / yr opex saved | Rural coverage delay |
| Additional capex | Alternative | Fund solar phase 2 with new budget. | — | $0.95M / yr saved | Capex +$2.6M; ROI dilution |
Scenario → decision
Recommended scenario: Reallocate to energy — $0.95M / yr opex saved; trade-off: Rural coverage delay.
No decision is saved here; the decision is recorded in the journey at Decide.
Source data, assumptions, methodology & limitations
Source data
- Telecom KPI data (current period, target, prior)
- Historical KPI trend data (monthly history Apr–Sep 2026)
- Scenario library (assumptions, results, recommended flag)
- Value realization records (expected / actual value)
- Evidence records
Assumptions
- No action: continues the 6-month stored trend (+1.86 per month).
- Recommended action: reverses the trend at the same monthly rate (no stored target).
- Scenario outcomes, costs and risks are as stored for each scenario.
Methodology
- Scenarios of the selected journey are ordered Current State → No Action → Recommended → Upside → Downside → Alternatives.
- With an originating issue, alternatives sharing no words with the issue move to the bottom of the table.
- Projected KPI per scenario uses the shared deterministic forecast; only Current State, No Action and Recommended are modelled.
Limitations
- Scenario outcomes are governed figures stored with each scenario — they are not re-computed by a simulation engine.
- Forecasts are straight-line projections of six stored months; they ignore seasonality, shocks and interactions between measures.
- Many KPIs have no stored target; where absent, the recommended path reverses the trend at the same monthly rate.
- No downside scenario is stored for any journey; downside coverage is shown as a gap rather than invented.
| Evidence type | Item | Source |
|---|---|---|
| methodology | Capital & Investment methodology Track capex vs plan by programme; Compute ROI and payback per cohort; Link capacity added to revenue. | Finance Planning Dataset |
| assumption | Diesel price assumption Diesel price held flat for the forecast horizon. | Finance Planning Dataset |
| methodology | Cost Optimization methodology Allocate opex by function and unit cost; Benchmark unit costs; Track realised savings. | Finance Planning Dataset |