Simulation & Prediction
Scenario Simulation Workspace
Compare current state, no action, recommended, upside and downside scenarios for one journey or issue.
Journey
Digital Services & Channels
KPI under simulation
Digital revenue
Current
USD 22.4M
Target
No stored target
Scenario outcome cards
Base case
Current trajectory with in-flight initiatives only.
- Stated outcome
- Digital revenue at stake: $1.4M / yr
- Risk / trade-off
- —
- Digital revenue in 6 mo
- USD 22.4M ACTUAL
Mobile money + data bundle
Bonus data for first mobile money transaction.
- Stated outcome
- +$1.4M / yr
- Risk / trade-off
- Incentive cost $0.3M
- Digital revenue in 6 mo
- USD 25.81M SCENARIO
- Expected value
- Revenue generated: USD 1.4M expected; USD 260k legacy recorded amount — excluded from current reporting · Not verified
Cashback programme
1% cashback on payments.
- Stated outcome
- +$1.8M / yr
- Risk / trade-off
- Cost $0.9M
- Digital revenue in 6 mo
- not modelled
Organic growth
No new incentives.
- Stated outcome
- +$0.6M / yr
- Risk / trade-off
- Adoption plateaus
- Digital revenue in 6 mo
- not modelled
Not stored for this journey: No Action, Upside, Downside. Shown as a gap rather than invented.
Scenario comparison — stated value vs cost/risk (USD M)
Amounts parsed from each scenario's stored results; ★ = recommended. Non-monetary outcomes plot as zero.
Risk / return matrix
Top-left = high value for low stated cost/risk.
Digital revenue — actual vs scenario paths
Same projection as the journey Predict stage and the Forecasting page. Open full forecast →
Comparison table
| Scenario | Role | Assumptions | Projected KPI (6 mo) | Stated impact | Risk / trade-off |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base case | Current State | Current trajectory with in-flight initiatives only. | USD 22.4M | Baseline | — |
| Mobile money + data bundle | Recommended | Bonus data for first mobile money transaction. | USD 25.81M | +$1.4M / yr | Incentive cost $0.3M |
| Cashback programme | Alternative | 1% cashback on payments. | — | +$1.8M / yr | Cost $0.9M |
| Organic growth | Alternative | No new incentives. | — | +$0.6M / yr | Adoption plateaus |
Scenario → decision
Recommended scenario: Mobile money + data bundle — +$1.4M / yr; trade-off: Incentive cost $0.3M.
No decision is saved here; the decision is recorded in the journey at Decide.
Source data, assumptions, methodology & limitations
Source data
- Telecom KPI data (current period, target, prior)
- Historical KPI trend data (monthly history Apr–Sep 2026)
- Scenario library (assumptions, results, recommended flag)
- Value realization records (expected / actual value)
- Evidence records
Assumptions
- No action: continues the 6-month stored trend (+0.57 per month).
- Recommended action: reverses the trend at the same monthly rate (no stored target).
- Scenario outcomes, costs and risks are as stored for each scenario.
Methodology
- Scenarios of the selected journey are ordered Current State → No Action → Recommended → Upside → Downside → Alternatives.
- With an originating issue, alternatives sharing no words with the issue move to the bottom of the table.
- Projected KPI per scenario uses the shared deterministic forecast; only Current State, No Action and Recommended are modelled.
Limitations
- Scenario outcomes are governed figures stored with each scenario — they are not re-computed by a simulation engine.
- Forecasts are straight-line projections of six stored months; they ignore seasonality, shocks and interactions between measures.
- Many KPIs have no stored target; where absent, the recommended path reverses the trend at the same monthly rate.
- No downside scenario is stored for any journey; downside coverage is shown as a gap rather than invented.
| Evidence type | Item | Source |
|---|---|---|
| methodology | Digital Services methodology Combine app analytics and transaction platforms; Attribute revenue to digital channels; Track cohort retention. | Finance Planning Dataset |