Simulation & Prediction
Scenario Simulation Workspace
Compare current state, no action, recommended, upside and downside scenarios for one journey or issue.
Journey
Regulatory & Compliance
KPI under simulation
Regulatory breaches
Current
2
Target
No stored target
Scenario outcome cards
Base case
Current trajectory with in-flight initiatives only.
- Stated outcome
- Potential penalty exposure: $0.75M
- Risk / trade-off
- —
- Regulatory breaches in 6 mo
- 2 ACTUAL
USSD + retail campaign
Self-verify via USSD plus retail.
- Stated outcome
- ~85% verified
- Risk / trade-off
- Fraud controls needed
- Regulatory breaches in 6 mo
- 1.14 SCENARIO
- Expected value
- Loss avoided: USD 750k expected
Request extension
Ask regulator for 60 more days.
- Stated outcome
- Deadline relief
- Risk / trade-off
- Uncertain; reputational risk
- Regulatory breaches in 6 mo
- not modelled
Retail-only verification
Verify in shops only.
- Stated outcome
- ~55% verified
- Risk / trade-off
- High disconnection risk
- Regulatory breaches in 6 mo
- not modelled
Not stored for this journey: No Action, Upside, Downside. Shown as a gap rather than invented.
Scenario comparison — stated value vs cost/risk (USD M)
Amounts parsed from each scenario's stored results; ★ = recommended. Non-monetary outcomes plot as zero.
Risk / return matrix
Top-left = high value for low stated cost/risk.
Regulatory breaches — actual vs scenario paths
Same projection as the journey Predict stage and the Forecasting page. Open full forecast →
Comparison table
| Scenario | Role | Assumptions | Projected KPI (6 mo) | Stated impact | Risk / trade-off |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base case | Current State | Current trajectory with in-flight initiatives only. | 2 | Baseline | — |
| USSD + retail campaign | Recommended | Self-verify via USSD plus retail. | 1.14 | ~85% verified | Fraud controls needed |
| Request extension | Alternative | Ask regulator for 60 more days. | — | Deadline relief | Uncertain; reputational risk |
| Retail-only verification | Alternative | Verify in shops only. | — | ~55% verified | High disconnection risk |
Scenario → decision
Recommended scenario: USSD + retail campaign — ~85% verified; trade-off: Fraud controls needed.
No decision is saved here; the decision is recorded in the journey at Decide.
Source data, assumptions, methodology & limitations
Source data
- Telecom KPI data (current period, target, prior)
- Historical KPI trend data (monthly history Apr–Sep 2026)
- Scenario library (assumptions, results, recommended flag)
- Value realization records (expected / actual value)
- Evidence records
Assumptions
- No action: continues the 6-month stored trend (+0.14 per month).
- Recommended action: reverses the trend at the same monthly rate (no stored target).
- Scenario outcomes, costs and risks are as stored for each scenario.
Methodology
- Scenarios of the selected journey are ordered Current State → No Action → Recommended → Upside → Downside → Alternatives.
- With an originating issue, alternatives sharing no words with the issue move to the bottom of the table.
- Projected KPI per scenario uses the shared deterministic forecast; only Current State, No Action and Recommended are modelled.
Limitations
- Scenario outcomes are governed figures stored with each scenario — they are not re-computed by a simulation engine.
- Forecasts are straight-line projections of six stored months; they ignore seasonality, shocks and interactions between measures.
- Many KPIs have no stored target; where absent, the recommended path reverses the trend at the same monthly rate.
- No downside scenario is stored for any journey; downside coverage is shown as a gap rather than invented.
| Evidence type | Item | Source |
|---|---|---|
| limitation | Regulatory data lag Regulator returns lag by one quarter; current quarter is estimated. | Regulatory Reporting Store |
| methodology | Regulatory & Compliance methodology Track obligations against regulator calendar; Monitor QoS and SLA thresholds; Log audit findings and actions. | Finance Planning Dataset |