Simulation & Prediction
Scenario Simulation Workspace
Compare current state, no action, recommended, upside and downside scenarios for one journey or issue.
Journey
Subscriber Growth
KPI under simulation
Net adds
Current
+68k
Target
No stored target
Scenario outcome cards
Base case
Current trajectory with in-flight initiatives only.
- Stated outcome
- Net adds shortfall vs plan: -9k / month
- Risk / trade-off
- —
- Net adds in 6 mo
- +68k ACTUAL
Status quo
No change to acquisition approach.
- Stated outcome
- +68k / month
- Risk / trade-off
- Base growth below plan
- Net adds in 6 mo
- +26.34k SCENARIO
Distributor incentives
Higher commission and stock financing in North.
- Stated outcome
- +80k / month
- Risk / trade-off
- Commission cost +$0.2M
- Net adds in 6 mo
- +109.66k SCENARIO
- Expected value
- Revenue generated: USD 800k expected; USD 120k legacy recorded amount — excluded from current reporting · Not verified
Digital-first acquisition
Push eSIM and app onboarding.
- Stated outcome
- +74k / month
- Risk / trade-off
- Slower ramp-up
- Net adds in 6 mo
- not modelled
Not stored for this journey: Upside, Downside. Shown as a gap rather than invented.
Scenario comparison — stated value vs cost/risk (USD M)
Amounts parsed from each scenario's stored results; ★ = recommended. Non-monetary outcomes plot as zero.
Risk / return matrix
Top-left = high value for low stated cost/risk.
Net adds — actual vs scenario paths
Same projection as the journey Predict stage and the Forecasting page. Open full forecast →
Comparison table
| Scenario | Role | Assumptions | Projected KPI (6 mo) | Stated impact | Risk / trade-off |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base case | Current State | Current trajectory with in-flight initiatives only. | +68k | Baseline | — |
| Status quo | No Action | No change to acquisition approach. | +26.34k | +68k / month | Base growth below plan |
| Distributor incentives | Recommended | Higher commission and stock financing in North. | +109.66k | +80k / month | Commission cost +$0.2M |
| Digital-first acquisition | Alternative | Push eSIM and app onboarding. | — | +74k / month | Slower ramp-up |
Scenario → decision
Recommended scenario: Distributor incentives — +80k / month; trade-off: Commission cost +$0.2M.
No decision is saved here; the decision is recorded in the journey at Decide.
Source data, assumptions, methodology & limitations
Source data
- Telecom KPI data (current period, target, prior)
- Historical KPI trend data (monthly history Apr–Sep 2026)
- Scenario library (assumptions, results, recommended flag)
- Value realization records (expected / actual value)
- Evidence records
Assumptions
- No action: continues the 6-month stored trend (-6.94 per month).
- Recommended action: reverses the trend at the same monthly rate (no stored target).
- Scenario outcomes, costs and risks are as stored for each scenario.
Methodology
- Scenarios of the selected journey are ordered Current State → No Action → Recommended → Upside → Downside → Alternatives.
- With an originating issue, alternatives sharing no words with the issue move to the bottom of the table.
- Projected KPI per scenario uses the shared deterministic forecast; only Current State, No Action and Recommended are modelled.
Limitations
- Scenario outcomes are governed figures stored with each scenario — they are not re-computed by a simulation engine.
- Forecasts are straight-line projections of six stored months; they ignore seasonality, shocks and interactions between measures.
- Many KPIs have no stored target; where absent, the recommended path reverses the trend at the same monthly rate.
- No downside scenario is stored for any journey; downside coverage is shown as a gap rather than invented.
| Evidence type | Item | Source |
|---|---|---|
| methodology | Subscriber Growth methodology Reconcile gross adds, churn and net adds; Segment by channel and region; Benchmark share using regulator returns. | Finance Planning Dataset |