Simulation & Prediction
Forecasting
Historical actuals with run-rate, no-action and recommended-action projections against target.
Latest actual
ACTUAL+31
Run-rate (6 mo)
FORECAST+31
No action (6 mo)
FORECAST+26.89
Recommended (6 mo)
SCENARIO+35.11
Target
TARGETNot stored
NPS — Customer Experience
Solid = stored actuals (Historical KPI trend data). Dashed = deterministic projections in the shaded period. Band = ±1σ of historical residuals around the no-action line, widening with horizon. Direction of good: higher.
Forecast table
| Period | Type | Actual | Run-rate | No action | Recommended | Spread (±1σ) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 26 | ACTUAL | +35 | ||||
| May 26 | ACTUAL | +34 | ||||
| Jun 26 | ACTUAL | +34 | ||||
| Jul 26 | ACTUAL | +33 | ||||
| Aug 26 | ACTUAL | +33 | ||||
| Sep 26 | ACTUAL | +31 | ||||
| Oct 26 | FORECAST | — | +31 | +30.31 | +31.69 | +29.78 – +30.84 |
| Nov 26 | FORECAST | — | +31 | +29.63 | +32.37 | +28.89 – +30.37 |
| Dec 26 | FORECAST | — | +31 | +28.94 | +33.06 | +28.03 – +29.85 |
| Jan 27 | FORECAST | — | +31 | +28.26 | +33.74 | +27.21 – +29.31 |
| Feb 27 | FORECAST | — | +31 | +27.57 | +34.43 | +26.39 – +28.75 |
| Mar 27 | FORECAST | — | +31 | +26.89 | +35.11 | +25.6 – +28.18 |
Source data, assumptions, methodology & limitations
Source data
- Telecom KPI data (current period, target, prior)
- Historical KPI trend data (monthly history Apr–Sep 2026)
Assumptions
- Run-rate baseline: holds the latest stored actual flat.
- No action: continues the 6-month stored trend (-0.69 per month).
- Recommended action: reverses the trend at the same monthly rate (no stored target).
Methodology
- Least-squares straight line through 6 stored months (slope -0.686 per month).
- Residual standard deviation σ = 0.526; spread = σ × √(months ahead).
- Identical arithmetic feeds Decision Journey Stage 5 — Predict.
Limitations
- Forecasts are straight-line projections of six stored months; they ignore seasonality, shocks and interactions between measures.
- Many KPIs have no stored target; where absent, the recommended path reverses the trend at the same monthly rate.
- No downside scenario is stored for any journey; downside coverage is shown as a gap rather than invented.
Forecast horizon: 6 months (Oct 2026 – Mar 2027)Model status: deterministic arithmetic — no AI or machine-learning model.
| Evidence type | Item | Source |
|---|---|---|
| limitation | Survey sample size Demo NPS sample of 2,000 responses per quarter; ±2 pts margin of error. | Customer Experience Survey |
| methodology | Customer Experience methodology Combine survey, care and network experience data; Classify complaints by root cause; Track digital channel adoption. | Finance Planning Dataset |