Simulation & Prediction
Scenario Simulation Workspace
Compare current state, no action, recommended, upside and downside scenarios for one journey or issue.
Journey
Customer Experience
KPI under simulation
NPS
Current
+31
Target
No stored target
Scenario outcome cards
Base case
Current trajectory with in-flight initiatives only.
- Stated outcome
- NPS decline: -2 pts
- Risk / trade-off
- —
- NPS in 6 mo
- +31 ACTUAL
Self-service shift
Push app and USSD self-care.
- Stated outcome
- +4 NPS
- Risk / trade-off
- Adoption risk among older users
- NPS in 6 mo
- +35.11 SCENARIO
- Expected value
- Cost reduced: USD 400k expected; USD 90k legacy recorded amount — excluded from current reporting · Not verified
Add care agents
Hire 60 temporary agents.
- Stated outcome
- +2 NPS
- Risk / trade-off
- Cost $0.5M
- NPS in 6 mo
- not modelled
Combined
Self-service plus 20 agents.
- Stated outcome
- +5 NPS
- Risk / trade-off
- Cost $0.2M
- NPS in 6 mo
- not modelled
Not stored for this journey: No Action, Upside, Downside. Shown as a gap rather than invented.
Scenario comparison — stated value vs cost/risk (USD M)
Amounts parsed from each scenario's stored results; ★ = recommended. Non-monetary outcomes plot as zero.
Risk / return matrix
Top-left = high value for low stated cost/risk.
NPS — actual vs scenario paths
Same projection as the journey Predict stage and the Forecasting page. Open full forecast →
Comparison table
| Scenario | Role | Assumptions | Projected KPI (6 mo) | Stated impact | Risk / trade-off |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base case | Current State | Current trajectory with in-flight initiatives only. | +31 | Baseline | — |
| Self-service shift | Recommended | Push app and USSD self-care. | +35.11 | +4 NPS | Adoption risk among older users |
| Add care agents | Alternative | Hire 60 temporary agents. | — | +2 NPS | Cost $0.5M |
| Combined | Alternative | Self-service plus 20 agents. | — | +5 NPS | Cost $0.2M |
Scenario → decision
Recommended scenario: Self-service shift — +4 NPS; trade-off: Adoption risk among older users.
No decision is saved here; the decision is recorded in the journey at Decide.
Source data, assumptions, methodology & limitations
Source data
- Telecom KPI data (current period, target, prior)
- Historical KPI trend data (monthly history Apr–Sep 2026)
- Scenario library (assumptions, results, recommended flag)
- Value realization records (expected / actual value)
- Evidence records
Assumptions
- No action: continues the 6-month stored trend (-0.69 per month).
- Recommended action: reverses the trend at the same monthly rate (no stored target).
- Scenario outcomes, costs and risks are as stored for each scenario.
Methodology
- Scenarios of the selected journey are ordered Current State → No Action → Recommended → Upside → Downside → Alternatives.
- With an originating issue, alternatives sharing no words with the issue move to the bottom of the table.
- Projected KPI per scenario uses the shared deterministic forecast; only Current State, No Action and Recommended are modelled.
Limitations
- Scenario outcomes are governed figures stored with each scenario — they are not re-computed by a simulation engine.
- Forecasts are straight-line projections of six stored months; they ignore seasonality, shocks and interactions between measures.
- Many KPIs have no stored target; where absent, the recommended path reverses the trend at the same monthly rate.
- No downside scenario is stored for any journey; downside coverage is shown as a gap rather than invented.
| Evidence type | Item | Source |
|---|---|---|
| limitation | Survey sample size Demo NPS sample of 2,000 responses per quarter; ±2 pts margin of error. | Customer Experience Survey |
| methodology | Customer Experience methodology Combine survey, care and network experience data; Classify complaints by root cause; Track digital channel adoption. | Finance Planning Dataset |