Enterprise AI Administration
Governance & Lineage — Monthly churn
How this KPI is sourced, calculated, governed, predicted and acted on — one traceable chain.
Current value
2.9%
No stored target
Mission area
Churn & Retention
Decision journey
Churn & Retention
Source systems
4
CRM · Mediation / CDR · Recharge · Contact Center
Lineage path
From source system to value realization — counts of governed records linked to this KPI
- 4 Sources
- 6 Mappings
- 10 Variables
- 1 Formula
- 1 Rules
- 2 Models
- 5 Scenarios
- 3 Actions
- 1 Value records
Formula
Governed calculation for this KPI
Monthly Churn % APPROVED
Share of the opening active base that disconnected in the month
churned subscribers / opening active subscriber base × 100
Version 1.0 · Grain Subscriber-month · Owner Head of Customer Analytics · Sources: CRM, Billing
Source-to-target lineage
Source system, object and field feeding this KPI, and how each is transformed
| Role | Source | Transformation | Target | Grain / refresh |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Subscriber status changes | CRMsubscription.status_change | Classify activations and disconnects | subscriber_movements.gross_adds / disconnects | Subscriber-day · Daily |
| Churn events (numerator) | CRMcrm_subscribers.termination_date | Churn event when termination_date falls in period; voluntary/involuntary from reason code | subscriber_dimension.termination_date | Subscriber-month · Daily |
| Opening active base (denominator) | CRMcrm_subscribers.activation_date | Gross add when activation_date falls in period and first usage within 30 days | subscriber_dimension.activation_date | Subscriber-month · Daily |
| Usage decline driver | Mediation / CDRcdr_data_daily.data_mb | 30-day vs prior 30-day change per subscriber | subscriber_monthly_features.usage_decline_30d_pct | Subscriber-day · Daily |
| Recharge frequency driver | Rechargerecharge_transactions.recharge_date | Count of successful recharges per subscriber, last 30 days | subscriber_monthly_features.recharge_frequency_30d | Subscriber-day · Daily |
| Complaint driver | Contact Centercustomer_complaints.complaint_category | Count of complaints per subscriber, last 30 days | customer_experience_mart.complaint_count_30d | Complaint-case · Daily |
Business rules
Thresholds that escalate this KPI and the alert each raises
| Rule | Severity | Alert raised |
|---|---|---|
| High-Value Churn Escalation Propensity 0.65; revenue at risk ZAR 5M / month | HIGH | High-value urban prepaid churn up 0.5pp in 30 days |
Models
Predictive and simulation models used for this KPI
| AI model | Validation | Simulation model |
|---|---|---|
| Churn Propensity Model XGBoost · v3.2 | VALIDATION REQUIRED | Churn Sensitivity Model |
| High-Value Subscriber Segmentation Model Gaussian Mixture Model · v0.1 | VALIDATION REQUIRED | — |
Governed variables
Model features derived from the source fields above
Scenarios
Stored scenarios for the Churn & Retention journey
- Mass price matchalternative
- Targeted retention bundleRECOMMENDED
- Bundle + network fixalternative
- Do nothingno action
- Base casebase case
Actions & value
Governed actions and value records for the same journey
- Build target list from propensity modelCRM Analytics · Done
- Configure offer and USSD/SMS campaignHead of Retention · In progress
- Track save rate weeklyRetention Ops · Not started
- High-value churn reductionUSD 2.1M expected · USD 0.78M recorded actual — unverified · AT RISK