Simulation & Prediction
Predictive Intelligence
Actual, forecast and scenario outlook for the twelve executive measures.
Total Revenue
Financial PerformanceUSD 142.6M
USD 158.77M
USD 158.77M
No stored target · Scenario: +6% mid-tier repricing (+$3.2M / yr)
Blended ARPU
Revenue & ARPUUSD 4.32
USD 4.63
USD 4.63
No stored target · Scenario: +6% mid-tier repricing (+$3.2M / yr)
Subscriber Growth (net adds)
Subscriber Growth+68k
+26.34k
+109.66k
No stored target · Scenario: Distributor incentives (+80k / month)
Monthly Churn
Churn & Retention2.9%
3.43%
2.37%
No stored target · Scenario: Targeted retention bundle ($2.1M protected)
Revenue at Risk
Churn & RetentionUSD 6.8M
USD 10.02M
USD 3.58M
No stored target · Scenario: Targeted retention bundle ($2.1M protected)
Network Availability
Network Performance & Risk99.62%
99.49%
99.7%
Target 99.7% · Scenario: Permanent power upgrade (99.75% availability)
High-Risk / Congested Sites
Network Performance & Risk214
293.2
134.8
No stored target · Scenario: Permanent power upgrade (99.75% availability)
Fraud + Revenue Leakage
Fraud & Revenue AssuranceUSD 1.9M
USD 1.13M
USD 1.13M
No stored target · Scenario: Bulk blocking ($0.3M / month avoided)
Digital Revenue
Digital ServicesUSD 22.4M
USD 25.81M
USD 25.81M
No stored target · Scenario: Mobile money + data bundle (+$1.4M / yr)
OPEX
Cost OptimizationUSD 82.4M
USD 93.54M
USD 71.26M
No stored target · Scenario: Reallocate to energy ($0.95M / yr opex saved)
Network Investment ROI
Capital & Investment14.2%
16.65%
16.65%
No stored target · Scenario: Reallocate to energy ($0.95M / yr opex saved)
Actual: stored reference value; verification basis not independently confirmed.
Regulatory Risk (breaches)
Regulatory & Compliance2
2.86
1.14
No stored target · Scenario: USSD + retail campaign (~85% verified)
Source data, assumptions, methodology & limitations
Source data
- Telecom KPI data (current period, target, prior)
- Historical KPI trend data (monthly history Apr–Sep 2026)
- Scenario library (assumptions, results, recommended flag)
Assumptions
- The forecast continues each stored six-month trend unchanged.
- The scenario follows the recommended path to the stored target (or reverses the trend where no target is stored).
- Scenario label names the journey's stored recommended scenario.
Methodology
- Deterministic least-squares projection — not an AI or machine-learning prediction.
- Red forecast value = the no-action path moves in the wrong direction for that measure.
Limitations
- Forecasts are straight-line projections of six stored months; they ignore seasonality, shocks and interactions between measures.
- Many KPIs have no stored target; where absent, the recommended path reverses the trend at the same monthly rate.
- No downside scenario is stored for any journey; downside coverage is shown as a gap rather than invented.
| Evidence type | Item | Source |
|---|---|---|
| model output | Congestion forecast 214 sites forecast to exceed 85% utilisation within 90 days. | OSS network data |
| model output | SIM-box detection output 1,240 SIM-box incidents flagged; 91% detection rate. | Revenue assurance data |
| methodology | Network Performance & Risk methodology Aggregate availability and KPIs from network counters; Classify outages by root cause; Score sites by risk and revenue exposure. | Finance Planning Dataset |
| assumption | FX assumption All figures in USD at a constant planning rate. | Finance Planning Dataset |
| model output | Churn propensity scores 48k high-value subscribers scored above 60% churn propensity. | CRM |
| limitation | Regulatory data lag Regulator returns lag by one quarter; current quarter is estimated. | Regulatory Reporting Store |